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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Very difficult to tell where we go from here with the major caught in the middle of a multi-day range. Ultimately however, the overall structure remains grossly bearish with any medium-term rallies back towards the 1.4000 area to be used as compelling opportunities to build on existing short positions. The market has been chopping around over the past few weeks and we expect the chop to continue with key shorter-term levels to watch above and below coming in by 1.3740 and 1.2885 respectively.
Relative US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate expectations have had little impact on Euro/US dollar price action. Instead, markets remain focused on whether the ECB will follow in the Fed’s footsteps and enact Quantitative Easing measures in their respective economy. Soft growth numbers and almost-negligible inflation readings arguably give European officials leeway in taking aggressive measures to boost money supply. Yet recent ECB Governing Council rhetoric has been far from uniform. Some members suggest that interest rates may well go below 1.00 percent and special measures are imminent, but others see far less urgency in taking drastic action.The end result is that European monetary policy outlook remains especially uncertain, and such uncertainty has helped keep the Euro in a wide trading range against the US Dollar. Overnight Index Swaps suggest that the Euro will most likely maintain its interest rate advantage over the US dollar, but headline yields hardly paint the entire picture. It is easy to claim that the US Federal Reserve will be extremely slow in decreasing its aggressive monetary policy stimuli; the key question is whether the ECB can or will follow. Euro/US Dollar outlook could easily shift on clarification in ECB monetary policy outlook.

Dollar Might Tumble on Upside Surprise in Non-Farm Payroll

Moderating pace of recession has been the talk in the financial markets recently and all investors are looking forward to Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report for affirming this view. Economists expect the US job market to contract by another -620k in the month of Apr with unemployment rate jumping from 8.5% to 8.9%. However, recent economic data mostly point to a better reading. We'll discuss these 'leading' indicators and the possible impact of NFP to dollar below.
One of the most highly correlated indicators to NFP is indeed the employment components of the ISM indices. The employment component of ISM manufacturing index bottomed in Feb and had a very strong rise to 34.4 in Apr. On the other hand, the employment component of ISM non-manufacturing index bottomed at 31.1 last Nov. While there was some set back in March, the component did improve from 32.3 to 37 in Apr. While both were still in contraction region, the rise in Apr suggested that pace of contraction is slowing. Also, we may have seen the worst in job market contraction already and there should be some significant improvement, as implied by the indices in the near future, if not in Apr.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence is another indicator that's closely correlated with NFP as seen in the following chart. Consumer confidence bottomed at 25.3 in Feb and rose remarkably from 26.9 to 39.2 in Apr. The data also suggests that some strong improvement should be seen in NFP in Apr.
In addition, ADP report showed much less than expected contraction in the private sector by -491k only, best number since last October. Challenger layoffs rose by only 47%, least since last September. 4 Week average of initial jobless claims also fell by more than 14k.
Having said that, it's very likely that NFP will surprise on the upside this time with some chance to have the contraction improved to -400k to -500k level.
The dollar continues to be inversely correlated to stocks recently. Since April, Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen around 8.35%. On the other hand, dollar has depreciated over 9% against Australian dollar, over 7% against Canadian dollar and over 5% against Sterling. The greenback only managed to stay in tight range against Euro and Yen, which were both pressured by return of risk appetite.
Strong upside surprises in NFP will likely trigger extension in recent rally in stocks which in turn will trigger some sell off in the greenback. Among the major currencies, AUD and CAD will likely remain the ones to bet against dollar. Euro and Yen will be the ones to avoid in case of dollar weakness.

Forex Report to Build Your Wealth

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It doesn't matter whether the stock markets are rising or falling, or a particular currency pair is up or down - we use trading strategies and find trading setups to suit all market conditions, including swing trading, momentum trading and pattern breakouts. Our experienced stock market and currency traders use in-depth technical analysis combined with fundamental analysis to generate trading tips for the following day. We suggest what market to buy or short and at what price, where to set your stop-loss level and where to exit the trade. This level of detail assists our clients in reaching their goal of becoming more profitable traders.
We also provide a real-time SMS and email alert system, notifying you of our trade setups with an entry price and an exit price so you can act quickly to seize market profits. So if one of our particular trading tips hits the stock price we suggested in the report we will send a message to you immediately via email and SMS directly to your mobile phone.
At CFD FX REPORT we believe in stock market education. Knowledge is paramount. The well-informed trader is more likely to be a successful trader. Everyday the CFD Report and FX Report we provide education lessons covering the basics of the stock market, technical analysis, fundamentals, money management, trading strategies, technical indicators, contracts for difference and much more.
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With all of this combined knowledge and experience you can see why the CFD FX REPORT is the stock market and forex market trading tool that traders need.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 96.88; (P) 97.85; (R1) 98.45; More.
USD/JPY's fall continues after brief recovery and dives to as low as 96.71 so far in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 95.61 support next. As mentioned before, USD/JPY could be forming a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 99.67, h: 101.43, rs: 99.71?). Break of 95.61 will now be an important signal that whole rise from 87.12 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish. On the upside, above 97.82 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 124.13 (07 high) is still intact. This is supported by the fact that USD/JPY is still struggling to take out 55 weeks EMA (now at 99.93) decisively. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI are also indicating loss of upside momentum and suggest possibility of reversal. Hence, while further rise to above 101.43 cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong resistance as USD/JPY approaches medium term trend line resistance at 101.98 and bring reversal. Break of 95.61 support will be an important indication that whole rebound from 87.12 has completed and should bring resumption of the down trend from 124.13 eventually.

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Down Trend Resumes on Rising Commodity Prices

Dollar resumes recent broad based decline today as US stocks are set for modestly higher open. Further pressure is seen on the greenback as commodities extend recent rally, with Crude Oil breaching $60 level. Among the majors, Sterling is so far the bigger winner today on better than expected manufacturing production data. Meanwhile, Canadian dollar is catching up after release of wider than expected trade surplus. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is rather steady in range except versus dollar.
Technically, dollar index takes out yesterday's low after brief recovery and is now getting rid of mentioned 82.19/62 cluster support zone. Intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 82.87 minor resistance holds. As mentioned before, based on anticipate of further rise in stocks and commodities, we are expecting further broad based weakness in the dollar with dollar index extending recent fall to 100% projection of 89.62 to 82.63 from 86.87 at 79.88. However, we ain't too bearish on the greenback in the longer term, based on the view that recent rallies in stocks and commodities are merely correction in the longer term down trend. Strong support is expected as the dollar index dips below 80 psychological level and should keeps it above 77.69 long term support.
Data released in US session saw US trade deficit widened less than expected to -27.6B in March. Canadian trade surplus widened more than expected to 1.1B CAD in March.
Better-than-expected output data were released in the UK. Manufacturing production dropped -0.1% mom, the smallest declines in 13 months, in March following a -0.3% (revised upward) fall a month ago. On annual basis, the reading contracted -12.9%, also better than consensus of -14% and -13.4% drop in February. The data showed that BOE's reduction in interest rates and asset purchase program may have provided positive impacts to the economy. Industrial production declined -0.6% mom in March, less than market expectation of -0.8% and an upwardly revised -0.7% a month ago. On yearly basis, the reading was down -12.4%, compared with consensus of -12.8% as well as an upgraded -12.3% in the previous month.
UK Trade deficit narrowed to 6.59B pound in March, compared with consensus of -7.25B pounds and 6.83B pound a month ago. The BRC retail sales posted the biggest rise since April 2006. Total retail sales soared +6.3% yoy in April after a +0.6% gain a month ago as driven by increase in sales in non-food items. DCLG house plummeted -13.6% in March after declining -12.3% a month ago. RICS house price balance plunged -59.9% in April (consensus: -70%), the highest since January 2008, after plunging -72.1% in March.
Germany finalized CPI for Apr is confirmed to be 0.0% mom and 0.7% yoy.
Australia's budget deficit will rise to AUD 57.6B, 4.9% of GDP in the 12 months through June 2010 as the government increases spending. Concerning economic outlook, the Government forecasts economy will contract -0.5% during fiscal year 2010 and grow 2.25% in fiscal 2011.

Monday, May 4, 2009

News and Reports Move The Market.

Bernard, a professional News Trader, aims to take advantage of the negative correlation between the different currency pairs in the short term on several reporting days days during the month when specific financial reports come out.

Professional traders aren't looking for action.

Bernard. uses highly probable events that happen consistently on several different occasions each month and make money no matter what direction the price moves. As close to a guarantee as you can get in the financial markets and it completely eliminates the greed and human emotion of trading

FAQ

1) What kind of services FXOpen provides?
FXOpen is a brokerage company in FOREX field. We propose different kind of courses starting from beginners up to advanced courses for people with FOREX experience and traders. Also we prepare FOREX teachers.

Participants

Commercial Banks
Central Banks
Currency Exchanges
Investment Funds
Brokerage HousesParticipants of this market are, first of all, large commercial banks through which the basic operations under the instruction of exporters and importers, investment institutes are carried out, insurance and pension funds, hedge and individual investors. Also these banks operations and in the interests due to own means, thus at large banks volumes of daily operations reach billions dollars, and at some banks even the basic part of the profit is formed only due to speculative operations with currency.

What Moves Forex

Foreign Exchange is affected by various economic and political factors. The largest fluctuations in currency prices usually occur during Central Bank intervention, when governments trade in huge amounts forex in an attempt to either raise or lower the value of their own currency. This, aswell as many other factors such as interest rate changes, economic figures, political instability and large lot transactions by hedge funds can move the market.

Liquidity:

the market operates the enormous money supply and gives absolute freedom in opening or closing a position in the current market quotation. High liquidity is a powerful magnet for any investor, because it gives him or her the freedom to open or to close a position of any size whatever.
FOREX is a highly profitable business which does not depend on time, place or political situation in your country. Advantage of this business is that you make deals using computer from any part of the world 24 hours per day 5 days per week.

Advantages

What Is Forex

Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. During exchange, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is determined simply: by supply and demand – exchange to which both parties agree.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Learn to Trade Forex

Learn to Trade Forex is a comprehensive training course designed to introduce investors to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. Accessible online, the course allows you to study at your own pace and consists of seven lessons covering everything from pips, margin, technical analysis & tools, charting, and more.
Understand currency quoting and the factors that drive individual currency movements
Read and analyze currency charts using advanced technical tools
Recognize and capitalize on market trends
Effectively utilize the leverage available in forex trading
Balance risk against reward intelligently and pro-actively
Anticipate and react to major economic events impacting global currencies
Employ sound money management techniques to attempt to maximize gains and keep losses to a minimum These preview pages will provide you with a sneak peek of the course content included in the program. To begin, click the next button in the top right corner. Use the Next and Back buttons to navigate between slides.

Self-Study Course

Self-Study Course Learn key Forex concepts online, at your own pace. Seven web-based lessons cover the essentials of Forex trading:
·
Understand currency quoting and the factors driving individual currency movements.
·
Read and analyze currency charts using advanced technical tools.
·
Recognize trends in the market – as they emerge.
·
Balance risk against reward intelligently and pro-actively.
·
Anticipate and react to major economic event impacting global currencies.
·
Employ sound money management techniques to attempt to maximize gains and keep losses to a minimum.

Join Forex

Introductory Guide to ForexDiscover the fundamentals you need to know before trading currencies.
Real-time Practice AccountPut your knowledge to work by trading in real market conditions, risk-free.
One-on-One TrainingLearn about forex and how to make the most of our trading platforms.
Foundation WebinarsView an online course on forex basics or trading plans.

Friday, April 17, 2009

What is Forex?


The simple sense of Forex (Forex currency exchange, Foreign Exchange) is simultaneous purchase and sale of the currency or the exchange of one country's currency for the one of another country. The world currencies do not have a fixed exchange rate and are always fluctuating being traded in the currency pairs like Euro/Dollar, Dollar/Yen an others. 85% of daily trades are taken by major currencies trading.Investments usually deal with 4 major pairs: Euro against US dollar, US dollar against Japanese yen, British pound against US dollar, and US dollar against Swiss franc or EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF used to sign these pairs accordingly. These major pairs are considered as Forex market's "blue chips". You will not receive any dividends on the currencies. Well known "buy low - sell high" gives the profit for currency trades.In case you have a forecast that one currency would get higher to another you can exchange the second one for the first one and wait for the profit. If you are lucky to see the trades following your forecast you can make an opposite transaction and to exchange currencies back gaining the profit.Forex transactions are carried out by Forex brokerage companies, also known as major banks dealers. Forex market is worldwide and your European colleagues may make a transaction with Japanese traders when it's time for you to sleep in the North America. There are 3 shifts for the major institutions to work in due to 24-hours a day activity of the Forex market. It's possible to ask for overnight execution for take-profit and stop-loss orders of the client.Prices in the Forex market fluctuate without any dramatic changes unlike stock market where considerable gaps are likely to be seen. There isn't any problems entering and exit the market due to its daily turnover of about $1.2 trillion. Forex market can not ever be forced to stop. The transactions were carried out even in 2001, on September, 11th.Foreign exchange market (also called Forex of FX to shorten the name) is the oldest market in the world. It is also seen to be the largest one. Being currencies' primary market working 24-hours a day, Forex is also the largest market with highest liquidity. This is an interbank market carrying out spot (or cash) transactions. The currency futures market, to be compared with Forex is traded only 1% as much.Forex market doesn't have any exchange center unlike the stock market. Forex trading seem to go after the sun around the world, from banks of the United States to other parts of the world like Australia, New Zealand, the Far East or Europe and back to the US some time later.High minimum amount of transaction and strict financial requirements used to make this interbank market unavailable for small speculators. The only dealers of currency markets were banks, huge-amount speculators and largest currency dealers. They had an ultimate access to this market dealing with lots of primary exchange rates of the world currencies, the market with an extremely high liquidity along with an unusually strong nature of trends.Nowadays small traders have an opportunity to purchase the small lots (units), as a result of the large inter-bank units being split by market maker brokers like FX Solutions, at the amount they like.The traders of any size like small companies and individual speculators have an access to the market at the same price fluctuations and exchange rates which only large players used to enjoy recently. Market makers monitor the rates so that produce their profit on the difference of rates at which the currency was bought and sold.Foreign Exchange Market has an acronymic name Forex. It has the largest size and the liquidity throughout the world nowadays. Forex daily transactions are carried out at the common amount from 1 to 3 trillion dollars. There is no stock market that is able to deal with a comparable amount of money.This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.Still, lots of experienced traders consider such leverage dangerous and won't get started with it. Though, if you know how ho use such high leverage it will do you only good. But this is the place to stop speaking about the basic things. Keep reading these articles if you want to be aware of how this market has occurred and some of its historical matters.Now it is time to speak about the strategies and the way of making money at Forex some traders use. First we should say that the things that work in one case do not certainly work in another. The fact is that currency trading surely means risk. Still, there are a number of strategies for the newbie to use to be the winner.Forex trading may seem very easy but it is not. Your high today earnings may turn into considerable losses even of your starting capital tomorrow. Newbie traders are likely to make the same mistakes several times. Here is a list of such typical mistakes.

Foreign Exchange

This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.
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